The Premier League is now one of the most unpredictable divisions in the world with title holders Man City now seemingly able to drop points despite dominating teams.
Only Liverpool are left as a reliable side as they steamroller sides even if they aren’t too deserving of all three points.
According to expected goals (xG), they rightly sneaked to a 2-1 win – but the statistics suggest they really didn’t create too many more chances than Brighton.
Elsewhere, this weekend Crystal Palace grabbed a undeserved victory with xG suggesting they could just as easily have lost 2-1 instead of winning 2-0.
And in the big shock, West Ham somehow beat Chelsea despite the Blues racking up 2.73 xG compared to West Ham’s 1.12.
The Premier League table could look extremely different if we based it on xG results.
While we know football is about getting the ball in the back of the net, the metric gives us a better picture of how teams are performing.
What is expected goals?
- Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
- Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
- The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
- The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
It’s no secret that Arsenal have been doing poorly too but according to the stats it could well be a lot worse than it is right now.
Here at talkSPORT.com, we’re always keeping an eye on Understat.com to get an alternative look at the top-flight.
Find out how the stats suggest the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…
20. Newcastle – Real position = 14
Real points = 16 | Expected points = 9.99
19. Norwich – Real position = 19
Real points = 11 | Expected points = 10.99
18. West Ham – Real position = 13
Real points = 16 | Expected points = 12.21
17. Crystal Palace – Real position = 11
Real points = 18 | Expected points = 13.96
16. Bournemouth – Real position = 12
Real points = 16 | Expected points = 16.04
15. Aston Villa – Real position = 15
Real points = 15 | Expected points = 16.29
14. Watford – Real position = 20
Real points = 8 | Expected points = 16.63
13. Brighton – Real position = 16
Real points = 15 | Expected points = 17.52
12. Sheffield United – Real position = 7
Real points = 19 | Expected points = 17.85
11. Arsenal – Real position = 8
Real points = 19 | Expected points = 18.29
10. Southampton – Real position = 18
Real points = 12 | Expected points = 18.39
9. Tottenham – Real position = 5
Real points = 20 | Expected points = 20.34
8. Wolves – Real position = 6
Real points = 20 | Expected points = 20.70
7. Everton – Real position = 17
Real points = 14 | Expected points = 21.52
6. Burnley – Real position = 10
Real points = 18 | Expected points = 22.44
5. Leicester – Real position = 2
Real points = 32 | Expected points = 22.74
4. Manchester United – Real position = 9
Real points = 18 | Expected points = 26.13
3. Chelsea – Real position = 4
Real points = 26 | Expected points = 26.73
2. Liverpool – Real position = 1
Real points = 40 | Expected points = 27.59
1. Manchester City – Real position = 3
Real points = 29 | Expected points = 32.77
Saturday is GameDay on talkSPORT as we bring you THREE live Premier League commentaries across our network