Alternative Premier League table based on expected goals – Are Arsenal getting lucky?

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The Premier League is now one of the most unpredictable divisions in the world with title holders Man City now seemingly able to drop points despite dominating teams.

Only Liverpool are left as a reliable side as they steamroller sides even if they aren’t too deserving of all three points.

Trent Alexander-Arnold was the provider for both of Virgil van Dijk’s goals against Brighton
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According to expected goals (xG), they rightly sneaked to a 2-1 win – but the statistics suggest they really didn’t create too many more chances than Brighton.

Elsewhere, this weekend Crystal Palace grabbed a undeserved victory with xG suggesting they could just as easily have lost 2-1 instead of winning 2-0.

And in the big shock, West Ham somehow beat Chelsea despite the Blues racking up 2.73 xG compared to West Ham’s 1.12.

The Premier League table could look extremely different if we based it on xG results.

While we know football is about getting the ball in the back of the net, the metric gives us a better picture of how teams are performing.

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

It’s no secret that Arsenal have been doing poorly too but according to the stats it could well be a lot worse than it is right now.

Here at talkSPORT.com, we’re always keeping an eye on Understat.com to get an alternative look at the top-flight.

Find out how the stats suggest the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…

Solskjaer would much rather the Premier League table looked like this…
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20. Newcastle – Real position = 14

Real points = 16 | Expected points = 9.99

19. Norwich – Real position = 19

Real points = 11 | Expected points = 10.99

18. West Ham – Real position = 13

Real points = 16 | Expected points = 12.21

Manuel Pellegrini is under pressure at West Ham but a win over Chelsea eased it
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17. Crystal Palace – Real position = 11

Real points = 18 | Expected points = 13.96

16. Bournemouth – Real position = 12

Real points = 16 | Expected points = 16.04

15. Aston Villa – Real position = 15

Real points = 15 | Expected points = 16.29

14. Watford – Real position = 20

Real points = 8 | Expected points = 16.63

Quique Sanchez Flores was unable to turn around the fortunes at Vicarage Road and has now been sacked
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13. Brighton – Real position = 16

Real points = 15 | Expected points = 17.52

12. Sheffield United – Real position = 7

Real points = 19 | Expected points = 17.85

11. Arsenal – Real position = 8

Real points = 19 | Expected points = 18.29

Ljungberg watched Arsenal draw 2-2 with Norwich on Sunday
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10. Southampton – Real position = 18

Real points = 12 | Expected points = 18.39

9. Tottenham – Real position = 5

Real points = 20 | Expected points = 20.34

Jose Mourinho is getting the best out of Dele Alli
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8. Wolves – Real position = 6

Real points = 20 | Expected points = 20.70

7. Everton – Real position = 17

Real points = 14 | Expected points = 21.52

Marco Silva remains under huge pressure at Everton
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6. Burnley – Real position = 10

Real points = 18 |  Expected points = 22.44

5. Leicester – Real position = 2

Real points = 32 | Expected points = 22.74

Kelechi Iheanacho sparked mass scenes of celebration late on
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4. Manchester United – Real position = 9

Real points = 18 | Expected points = 26.13

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has come under increased scrutiny at Manchester United
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3. Chelsea – Real position = 4

Real points = 26 | Expected points = 26.73

2. Liverpool – Real position = 1

Real points = 40 | Expected points = 27.59

Jurgen Klopp’s men are 11 points clear at the top of the Premier League
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1. Manchester City – Real position = 3

Real points = 29 | Expected points = 32.77

Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City dropped more points in the Premier League
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